Agricultural Plate Brought positive excess returns policy Policy Background New Year period when state leaders at the grassroots level passed inspection policy information so that the quot three rural quot issue once again to open this year the policy focus on the object General Secretary Hu Jintao inspected in Sanhe City in Hebei countryside said quot recently held a central rural work conference on the future of a period of 39 Agriculture 39 to make a comprehensive plan for the work Central will be issued the first document in 2010 introduced a The new batch of benefiting the agriculture policy quot Experts said this year 39 s quot Document quot is expected to be released this week and the seventh consecutive lock quot Farmers quot But compared with the previous six years quot Document quot theme more integrated involving quot stable grain production and increase their income agricultural foundation and further deepen the reform quot and many other aspects Industry analysis seasonal pattern of price changes of agricultural products Since 1998 the price variation by the end of the fourth quarter to a quarter of the period are the international and domestic agricultural prices rose the most likely period Specific view of the domestic sugar and cotton prices in the first quarter of the probability of a larger share of the price of pork there is also the arrival of the winter season after the consumer prices down until the New Year after the end of the seasonal rules Increase the volume of trade of agricultural products is expected to push prices Supply side view of the specific varieties of sugar cotton and corn in a cut state support to the strong current prices 2010 grain yield in a row against the background of 6 years may still continue after the government of moderate strength rose slightly after the intervention status Pork prices are expected in the longer time in the uplink channel just upstream of the speed and height will be lower than on a cycle The supply from the upstream side view of the United States and the world record soybean yield were obtained which is expected to inhibit the final soybean oil price increase Commodities Financial Impact of agricultural property is an important factor in price movements This year the dollar is expected to be difficult to reproduce the apparent trend of last year 39 s devaluation prices of agricultural products which will restrict the financial attributes of play A quarter of the year the release of the intensive agricultural policy period The movement of plates from the perspective of agriculture since 2004 the 30 trading days before the two basic blocks are outperforming the overall market agriculture and in the 30 trading days after the two were behind the broader market gains Therefore the first quarter of this year is expected to bring in agricultural policy favorable earnings over the agricultural section Investment Strategy Industrial Securities that last December to February this year the agricultural policies of the critical frequency of the period on animal husbandry and fishery industry to maintain the quot Recommended quot rating Policy theme will run through the first quarter of 2010 the main line of agricultural investment the proposed benefit from the seed subsidy concerned Agricultural Machinery Subsidies increased grain prices and other policies to protect related industries Focus on four types of investment opportunities in listed companies Agricultural section 2010 quot Stock the opportunity is greater than the industry opportunity quot focusing on investment opportunities in listed companies in four categories first the performance continued to grow Angel Yeast in animal husbandry stock green land sea and large groups San agricultural development second price up or pick up Nanning Sugar bowling Po Tuen Mun River in the grain Zhangzidao good masters Third performance improvement or improvement Denghai Seed Dunhuang Seed Xinzhong Ji Fengyuan Biochemical Fourth the asset integration is expected to new hope Real Estate section Second and third line cities are facing new opportunities Policy Background Since January 1 2010 the individual will buy less than 5 years non ordinary housing outside Sell The full business tax individuals will purchase more than 5 years including 5 years of non ordinary housing or less than 5 years of sales outside the ordinary housing in accordance with its sales revenue minus the purchase price of housing after the business tax personal will purchase more than 5 years including 5 years outside the ordinary home sales exempt from sales tax Industry Analysis Policy Change on the capital market depends on the real estate section of the policy to go in the strength and rhythm nature and economic recovery in house prices between the choices Reasonable choice is between house prices and economic recovery of the middle line Paul rigidity and improved demand and pressure of speculative investment demand stabilize the local bubble house prices for first line cities towns and so support the second and third tier cities price control policy based on market volume and price reactions while walking the market and policy to contend with each other Distinguish between different regions and demand intensity and rhythm of appropriate regulatory policies and the restoration of stability in the performance of the industry volume and price levels help maintain normal developers get to start investment and confidence and thus to maintain the good momentum of economic recovery Real estate investment from the current contribution of the fixed assets investment local land sales revenue non real estate industry the contribution of the macro economic recovery of such indicators the macroeconomic environment is not fully support such a large effort intensive real estate pressure To increase land supply and security of housing development is the better policy choices not only stabilize the price rise to increase supply but also to avoid severe blow by the credit needs makes it possible to control soaring housing prices and the goal of preserving the people 39 s livelihood do not affect real estate investment and economic recovery especially in the central 4 trillion of investment is closely related to the local matching funds are expected to be guaranteed The increase in revenue from land sales will also increase funding to protect housing development Investment strategy Guotai Junan that in view of market and industry trends change does not appear inverted and the main results of the company for 10 years to maintain 45 growth through the sale of basic identification current industry front line company valuation of 17 times 10 years two three lane major company for 10 years about 14 times the valuation valuation attractive up on maintaining investment grade holdings Investors may consider a gradual strategic Jiancang bargain especially the valuation of 15 times the shares on behalf of second and third tier cities such as the Wolong real estate celebrity home Cinda real estate new lake Po Suning Universal Kenfair shares Rongsheng development of varieties and unique business model outstanding advantages OCT Zhangjiang Hi Tech Financial Street and other firms
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